ConocoPhillips

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker	Analyst	Analyst Email
Scotia Howard Weil	Blake Fernandez	blake.fernandez@scotiabank.com
Cowen & Company	Charles Robertson	charles.robertson@cowen.com
Evercore ISI	Douglas Terreson	doug.terreson@evercoreisi.com
Credit Suisse	Edward Westlake	edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com
Piper Jaffray	Guy Baber	guy.a.baber@simmonspjc.com
Alembic Global Advisors	James Sullivan	james.sullivan@alembicglobal.com
Jefferies	Jason Gammel	jason.gammel@jefferies.com
Nomura Research	Lloyd Byrne	lloyd.byrne@nomura.com
Wolfe Research	Paul Sankey	psankey@wolferesearch.com
Raymond James	Pavel Molchanov	pavel.molchanov@raymondjames.com
Wells Fargo Securities	Roger D. Read	roger.read@wellsfargo.com
Deutsche Bank Research	Ryan Todd	ryan.todd@db.com
RBC Capital Markets	Scott Hanold	scott.hanold@rbccm.com

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Primary Input Data

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input	Label	2015 Value	2016 Value	Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes	NOPLAT	(4,307)	(3,715)	$NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)$
Free Cash Flow	FCF	(2,478)	(466)	$FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS$
Tax Shield	TS	552	589	$TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income$
Invested Capital	IC	88,228	82,863	$IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital$
Return on Invested Capital	ROIC	-4.88%	-4.48%	$ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }$
Net Investment	NetInv	(4,596)	4,881	$NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation$
Investment Rate	IR	106.71%	-131.40%	$IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Market	0.64%	3.30%	$WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Book	8.85%	8.64%
Enterprise value	EV_Market	81,731	88,425	$EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash$
Enterprise value	EV_Book	78,794	84,563
Long-Run Growth	g = IR x ROIC	-5.21%	5.89%	Long-run growth rates of the income variable are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
Long-Run Growth	g = % $\Delta$ GDP	2.50%	2.50%
Margin from Operations	M	-17.27%	-18.29%	$M\,\,=\,\,\frac{EBIT}{SALES}$
Depreciation/Amortization Rate	D	171.26%	174.37%	$D\,\,=\,\,\frac{D+A}{EBITDA}$

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Valuation Multiple Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs.

Equational Form	Observed Value		Single-stage multiple g solution		Two-stage valuation model g solution
Equational Form	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016
EV/SALES $\frac {EV}{Sales} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(M)$	2.79	3.70	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%
EV/EBITDA $\frac {EV}{EBITDA} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(1\,-\,D)$	11.49	15.05	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%
EV/NOPLAT $\frac {EV}{NOPLAT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}$	-18.98	-23.81	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%
EV/FCF_OPS $\frac {EV}{FCF_{OPS}} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	-32.98	-189.75	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%
EV/EBIT $\frac {EV}{EBIT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	-16.13	-20.23	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%
EV/IC $\frac {EV}{IC} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{WACC\,-\,g}$	0.93	1.07	-74.37%	119.32%	-35.05%	59.40%

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