National Oilwell Varco

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker Analyst Analyst Email
Piper Jaffray Bill Herbert william.a.herbert@simmonspjc.com
Scotia Howard Weil Bill Sanchez william.sanchez@scotiabank.com
Jefferies Brad Handler brad.handler@jefferies.com
William Blair Brandon Dobell bdobell@williamblair.com
GMP Securities Brian Uhlmer buhlmer@gmpsecurities.com
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. Byron K. Pope bpope@tudorpickering.com
Susquehanna Financial Group Charles Minervino charles.minervino@sig.com
BMO Capital Markets Daniel Boyd daniel.boyd@bmo.com
KLR Group Darren Gacicia dfg@klrgroup.com
Societe Generale Edward Muztafago edward.muztafago@sgcib.com
Raymond James J .Marshall Adkins marshall.adkins@raymondjames.com
Evercore ISI James West james.west@evercoreisi.com
Credit Suisse James Wicklund james.wicklund@credit-suisse.com
Capital One Securities Joseph D. Gibney joseph.gibney@capitalone.com
Wells Fargo Securities Judson E. Bailey jud.bailey@wellsfargo.com
Seaport Global Securities Ken Sill ksill@seaportglobal.com
Griffin Securities Kevin Simpson ksimpson@griffinsecurities.com
RBC Capital Markets Kurt Hallead kurt.hallead@rbccm.com
Cowen & Company Marc Bianchi marc.bianchi@cowen.com
Johnson Rice & Company Martin W. Malloy mmalloy@jrco.com
Nomura Research Matthew Johnston matthew.johnston@nomura.com
Guggenheim Securities Michael LaMotte michael.lamotte@guggenheimpartners.com
Clarksons Platou Securities Nokta Haithum haithum.nokta@clarksons.com
KeyBanc Capital Markets Robin Shoemaker robin_shoemaker@key.com
FBR Capital Markets & Co Thomas Curran tcurran@fbr.com
IBERIA Capital Partners Trey Stolz trey.stolz@iberiabank.com
Fearnley Securities Truls Olsen t.olsen@fearnleys.no

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Primary Input Data

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input

Label

2015 Value

2016
Value

Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes NOPLAT 1,242 (187) NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)
Free Cash Flow FCF 879 676 FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS
Tax Shield TS (31) 1 TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income
Invested Capital IC 22,476 18,093 IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital
Return on Invested Capital ROIC 5.52% -1.03% ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }
Net Investment NetInv  (2,965) (3,680) NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation
Investment Rate IR  -238.82% 1,967.91% IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
 WACCMarket 2.34% 2.87% WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)
 WACCBook     8.55%     8.59%
Enterprise value
 EVMarket  13,178  15,431 EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash
 EVBook    15,104     15,476
Long-Run Growth
 g = IR x ROIC
   -13.19%  -20.34% Long-run growth rates of the income variable are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
g = % \Delta GDP    2.50%    2.50%
Margin from Operations M  12.96%    -3.04% M\,\,=\,\,\frac{EBIT}{SALES}
Depreciation/Amortization Rate D  28.11%   145.55% D\,\,=\,\,\frac{D+A}{EBITDA}

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Valuation Multiple Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs.

Equational Form

Observed Value

Single-stage

multiple g solution

Two-stage valuation

model g solution
12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2016

EV/SALES 

\frac {EV}{Sales} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(M)

  0.89  2.13  10.04%  -23.64% 8.28%  -83.75%

EV/EBITDA

\frac {EV}{EBITDA} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(1\,-\,D)

 4.96 31.95 10.04% -23.64% 8.28%  -83.75%

EV/NOPLAT

\frac {EV}{NOPLAT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}

 10.61 -82.52 10.04% -23.64% 8.28%  -83.75%

EV/FCFOPS

\frac {EV}{FCF_{OPS}} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)

 14.99 22.83 10.04% -23.64% 8.28%  -83.75%

EV/EBIT

\frac {EV}{EBIT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)

 6.90 -70.14 10.04% -23.64%  8.28%  -83.75%

EV/IC

\frac {EV}{IC} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{WACC\,-\,g}

 0.59 0.85 10.04% -23.64% 8.28%  -83.75%

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