United Parcel Service Inc

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker	Analyst	Analyst Email
Credit Suisse	Allison M. Landry	allison.landry@credit-suisse.com
Raymond James	Arthur W. Hatfield	art.hatfield@raymondjames.com
Susquehanna Financial Group	Bascome Majors	bascome.majors@sig.com
Stifel Nicolaus	David G. Ross	dross@stifel.com
Bernstein Research	David Vernon	david.vernon@bernstein.com
Avondale Partners	Donald Broughton	dbroughton@avondalepartnersllc.com
Cowen & Company	Helane Becker	helane.becker@cowen.com
Stephens Inc	Jack Atkins	jack.atkins@stephens.com
Buckingham Research	Jeffrey Kauffman	jkauffman@buckresearch.com
RBC Capital Markets	John Barnes	john.barnes@rbccm.com
BB&T Capital Markets	Kevin W. Sterling	ksterling@bbandtcm.com
Nomura Research	Matt Troy	matt.troy@nomura.com
William Blair	Nathan Brochmann	nbrochmann@williamblair.com
Deutsche Bank Research	Robert Salmon	robert.salmon@db.com
Wolfe Research	Scott H. Group	sgroup@wolferesearch.com
Oppenheimer	Scott Schneeberger	scott.schneeberger@opco.com

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Primary Input Data

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input	Label	2015 Value	2016 Value	Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes	NOPLAT	4,774	3,296	$NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)$
Free Cash Flow	FCF	5,051	4,774	$FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS$
Tax Shield	TS	92	115	$TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income$
Invested Capital	IC	27,615	28,647	$IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital$
Return on Invested Capital	ROIC	17.29%	11.51%	$ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }$
Net Investment	NetInv	2,867	3,256	$NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation$
Investment Rate	IR	60.05%	98.78%	$IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Market	5.00%	7.20%	$WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Book	7.62%	7.17%
Enterprise value	EV_Market	90,671	106,424	$EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash$
Enterprise value	EV_Book	92,009	107,335
Long-Run Growth	g = IR x ROIC	10.38%	11.37%	Long-run growth rates of the income variable are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
Long-Run Growth	g = % $\Delta$ GDP	2.50%	2.50%
Margin from Operations	M	12.65%	8.38%	$M\,\,=\,\,\frac{EBIT}{SALES}$
Depreciation/Amortization Rate	D	22.10%	30.49%	$D\,\,=\,\,\frac{D+A}{EBITDA}$

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Valuation Multiple Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs.

Equational Form	Observed Value		Single-stage multiple g solution		Two-stage valuation model g solution
Equational Form	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016
EV/SALES $\frac {EV}{Sales} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(M)$	1.56	1.76	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%
EV/EBITDA $\frac {EV}{EBITDA} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(1\,-\,D)$	9.62	14.59	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%
EV/NOPLAT $\frac {EV}{NOPLAT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}$	18.99	32.29	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%
EV/FCF_OPS $\frac {EV}{FCF_{OPS}} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	17.95	30.34	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%
EV/EBIT $\frac {EV}{EBIT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	12.34	20.99	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%
EV/IC $\frac {EV}{IC} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{WACC\,-\,g}$	3.28	3.72	-0.38%	5.61%	-0.99%	6.10%

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