Exxon Mobil Corporation

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker	Analyst	Analyst Email
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co.	Anish Kapadia	akapadia@tudorpickering.com
Scotia Howard Weil	Blake Fernandez	blake.fernandez@scotiabank.com
Evercore ISI	Douglas Terreson	doug.terreson@evercoreisi.com
Credit Suisse	Edward Westlake	edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com
Piper Jaffray	Guy Baber	guy.a.baber@simmonspjc.com
Wolfe Research	Paul Sankey	psankey@wolferesearch.com
Raymond James	Pavel Molchanov	pavel.molchanov@raymondjames.com
Wells Fargo Securities	Roger D. Read	roger.read@wellsfargo.com
Cowen & Company	Sam Margolin	sam.margolin@cowen.com

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Primary Input Data

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input	Label	2015 Value	2016 Value	Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes	NOPLAT	8,374	2,759	$NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)$
Free Cash Flow	FCF	3,854	5,919	$FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS$
Tax Shield	TS	78	(25)	$TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income$
Invested Capital	IC	282,782	320,435	$IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital$
Return on Invested Capital	ROIC	2.96%	0.86%	$ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }$
Net Investment	NetInv	15,970	56,661	$NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation$
Investment Rate	IR	190.71%	2,057.86%	$IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Market	8.91%	6.51%	$WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)$
Weighted Average Cost of Capital	WACC_Book	9.19%	7.50%
Enterprise value	EV_Market	338,182	397,430	$EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash$
Enterprise value	EV_Book	340,228	399,674
Long-Run Growth	g = IR x ROIC	5.65%	17.68%	Long-run growth rates of the income variable are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
Long-Run Growth	g = % $\Delta$ GDP	2.50%	2.50%
Margin from Operations	M	5.44%	2.14%	$M\,\,=\,\,\frac{EBIT}{SALES}$
Depreciation/Amortization Rate	D	58.35%	81.78%	$D\,\,=\,\,\frac{D+A}{EBITDA}$

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Valuation Multiple Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs.

Equational Form	Observed Value		Single-stage multiple g solution		Two-stage valuation model g solution
Equational Form	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016	12/31/2015	12/31/2016
EV/SALES $\frac {EV}{Sales} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(M)$	1.43	2.01	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%
EV/EBITDA $\frac {EV}{EBITDA} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(1\,-\,D)$	10.93	17.10	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%
EV/NOPLAT $\frac {EV}{NOPLAT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}$	40.38	144.34	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%
EV/FCF_OPS $\frac {EV}{FCF_{OPS}} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	87.75	67.14	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%
EV/EBIT $\frac {EV}{EBIT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)$	26.25	93.82	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%
EV/IC $\frac {EV}{IC} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\, -\, g}{WACC\,-\,g}$	1.20	1.24	39.26%	30.01%	24.15%	20.38%

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