Exxon Mobil Corporation

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker Analyst Analyst Email
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. Anish Kapadia akapadia@tudorpickering.com
Scotia Howard Weil Blake Fernandez blake.fernandez@scotiabank.com
Evercore ISI Douglas Terreson doug.terreson@evercoreisi.com
Credit Suisse Edward Westlake edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com
Piper Jaffray Guy Baber guy.a.baber@simmonspjc.com
Wolfe Research Paul Sankey psankey@wolferesearch.com
Raymond James Pavel Molchanov pavel.molchanov@raymondjames.com
Wells Fargo Securities Roger D. Read roger.read@wellsfargo.com
Cowen & Company Sam Margolin sam.margolin@cowen.com

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Primary Input Data

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input

Label

2015 Value

2016
Value

Equational Form

Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes NOPLAT 8,374 2,759 NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)
Free Cash Flow FCF 3,854 5,919 FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS
Tax Shield TS 78 (25) TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income
Invested Capital IC 282,782 320,435 IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital
Return on Invested Capital ROIC 2.96% 0.86% ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }
Net Investment NetInv 15,970 56,661 NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation
Investment Rate IR 190.71% 2,057.86% IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WACCMarket 8.91% 6.51% WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)
 WACCBook    9.19%    7.50%
Enterprise value
EVMarket 338,182  397,430 EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash
 EVBook  340,228  399,674
Long-Run Growth
g = IR x ROIC
   5.65%    17.68% Long-run growth rates of the income variable are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
g = % \Delta GDP    2.50%     2.50%
Margin from Operations M   5.44%    2.14% M\,\,=\,\,\frac{EBIT}{SALES}
Depreciation/Amortization Rate D  58.35%    81.78% D\,\,=\,\,\frac{D+A}{EBITDA}

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Valuation Multiple Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs.

Equational Form

Observed Value

Single-stage

multiple g solution

Two-stage valuation

model g solution

12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2016

EV/SALES 

\frac {EV}{Sales} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(M)

 1.43  2.01  39.26%  30.01%  24.15%  20.38%

EV/EBITDA

\frac {EV}{EBITDA} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)\,(1\,-\,D)

10.93 17.10 39.26% 30.01% 24.15% 20.38%

EV/NOPLAT

\frac {EV}{NOPLAT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}

40.38 144.34 39.26% 30.01% 24.15% 20.38%

EV/FCFOPS

\frac {EV}{FCF_{OPS}} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)

87.75 67.14 39.26% 30.01% 24.15% 20.38%

EV/EBIT

\frac {EV}{EBIT} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{ROIC\,(WACC\,-\,g)}\,(1\,-\,T)

26.25 93.82 39.26% 30.01% 24.15% 20.38%

EV/IC

\frac {EV}{IC} \,= \,\frac{ROIC\,  -\,  g}{WACC\,-\,g}

1.20 1.24 39.26% 30.01% 24.15% 20.38%

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